The Logic Behind Allowing Bets on Scripted Sports Like Wrestling

Is wrestling fixed? That feels like a question that is as old as time itself and the unequivocal answer is of course, yes. Fixed in terms of the outcomes of matches being scripted and pre-determined before the fighters ever step into the ring.

Because of the nature of the sport, and with outcomes predetermined, it is perhaps to some surprise that bookmakers do take bets on wrestling. But why do they accept wagers on something where the outcome is already known?

Despite this, many fans still enjoy predicting match results. Some even play free betting games, to develop the skills that will let them place better bets in the future. 

Here is a look at what you can bet on, and how bookmakers handle it.

Predetermined Outcomes

A wrestling organisation like WWE for example and their producers, fully know the outcomes of things like championship fights. A lot of script-writing goes on to create rivalry storylines that build up, much like an ongoing soap opera, before reaching a showdown between the two fighters for a belt.

Even fights themselves can be heavily choreographed between two fighters. Smashing an opponent with a chair, executing a signature finishing move and even a sprinkling of eye-gouging can all be rehearsed before a fight.

This leaves wrestling in a unique place. The wrestlers put in a lot of dedication to their craft, and are well-trained, super-fit athletes. But it stands apart from the likes of competitive mixed martial arts and boxing, simply because inside the wrestling ring, there are those pre-determined secrets.

Why Bookmakers Have Wrestling Markets

Even though there are predetermined outcomes in wrestling, those are secrets which are only known to a small select group. Anyone involved in the entire set-up will have to sign Non-Disclosure Agreements to keep all the secrets about the future outcomes safe, and this offers a layer of protection for bookmakers.

As it’s a case of a ‘closed shop’ where the fighters may not even know who is going to win a fight until shortly before the event, it creates an opportunity for bookmakers. It’s also worth remembering that bookmakers diligently check markets and analyse any bets that come in.

So even if they were to suddenly see a rise in bets on a particular fighter, particularly from multiple sources, then that would set the alarm bells ringing that the market is potentially being manipulated. They will be suspicious that some secret has escaped, that someone with insider knowledge is trying to take advantage.

As a result, a bookmaker will potentially freeze the market. Bookmakers analyse betting patterns and always do everything in their power to protect themselves.

Championship Winners

Because the result of future bouts are not known to the public, that allows bookmakers to present wrestling markets. In many ways, this is much the same as reality TV shows. Those are pre-recorded and edited long before they are ever broadcast, so the outcomes are already known before betting markets open on them.

For wrestling, wagers can be placed on event outrights like who will win the next Heavyweight Championship belt at WrestleMania for example, or triumph in the latest edition of the Royal Rumble in the WWE.

That could be from a long-term outright forecast wrestling betting market where there are several contenders in line for a shot at the title, or when the fighters for the bout are known.

Fight Odds

If it is known who is competing against each other in a Lucha Libre title fight, for example, then you are going to see the fixed odds on the outcome available, just like you would for something like an unscripted professional boxing match.

From there, there will be the option to pick which fighter will win. Because wrestling doesn’t have the range of potential finishes that MMA or boxing does, then you won’t find markets like Method of Victory or Rounds betting.

Limited Scope

For wrestling betting markets, it is only big title fights that come into the spotlight. It is harder to find options for regular weekly action from different organisations outside of those major events, regardless if that’s Lucha Libra AAA or the New Japan Pro-Wrestling of the WWE in North America.

But, it’s possible to find betting markets from bookmakers. The risk for the betting sites is fairly low, because while fights are a blend of scripted and improvised moments, the outcomes of storylines are heavily guarded secrets.