UFC 309 Showdown: Jones vs. Miocic – Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks
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Get ready for the most epic night, November 16, 2024, as UFC 309 takes center stage at the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York City. The biggest fight of the night will be the highly anticipated heavyweight title combat between current champion Jon Jones and former champion Stipe Miocic. This bout is likely to command enormous fan interest around the world and quite likely shape the future course for the heavyweight division.
Jones vs. Miocic: Tale of the Tape
It can’t get any bigger, with both fighters set to go in a bout that fans have long been waiting for. Holding a fearsome record of 27 wins, one loss, and one no-contest, Jon Jones has built a reputation on his technical skills, unorthodox fighting style, and unmatched versatility inside the octagon. At 37 years old, newly signed to the heavyweight division, Jones opens as a -400 favorite.
On the other side of the octagon will be 42-year-old Stipe Miocic, who comes in with a 20-4-0 record. Having been known for his toughness, ability to strike very well, and experience as a longtime heavyweight, Miocic still holds the underdog status at +300 odds, equating to a 25 percent chance of winning. As the betting lines show, there is a clear preference for Jones, but Miocic’s underdog position gives high potential returns to any bettor who believes in his knockout power.
Let’s look a little closer and consider the physical stats and fighting styles to see what each fighter brings into the octagon:
| Statistic | Jon Jones | Stipe Miocic |
| Record | 27-1-0 | 20-4-0 |
| Age | 37 | 42 |
| Height | 6’4″ (194 cm) | 6’4″ (194 cm) |
| Reach | 84.5″ (215 cm) | 80″ (203 cm) |
| Significant Strikes Landed/Min | 4.29 | 4.82 |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min | 2.22 | 3.82 |
| Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 1.93 | 1.86 |
| Takedown Defense | 95% | 68% |
Source: UFC Official Statistics
That will likely play a huge role in the 4.5-inch reach advantage for Jones, enabling him to dictate the pace and distance of the fight. His 95 percent takedown defense only further backs up the fact that he controls where the fight goes and could prove problematic for Miocic if he does try to take the fight to the ground.
Miocic, on the other hand, brings almost unmatched experience and heavy hands, as shown by his striking rate of 4.82 significant strikes landed per minute—with a slight edge over Jones’ 4.29.
Implications and Analysis
His whole career, Jon Jones has built on adaptability—a rare ability to change strategy and adapt right in the heat of battle. What makes him one of the most complex puzzles to be solved is how adaptable and versatile he is inside that octagon. He can easily switch from striking to wrestling to submissions, most often keeping his opponents second-guessing.
Former heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic comes in with a deep grappling and striking background, added to an iron chin. That said, he is the older fighter, but his experience in the heavyweight division, plus his power, cannot be ignored. He’s durable, showed that he can take punishment, having endured brutal fights against Daniel Cormier and Francis Ngannou, and proved that he can last even in the most brutal of battles.
Interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall has been outspoken about his belief in Miocic’s ability to knock out Jones, citing that Miocic hits hard enough to stop Jones. Aspinall’s words are in tandem with those of fans who truly believe that experience and the power Miocic possesses could easily cause the biggest upset.
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Betting Tips and Advice
As the fight date approaches, bettors will likely be looking at recent performances and “ring rust,” given Miocic has not fought since March 2021. Meanwhile, Jones has been keeping busy in the ring, most recently impressive against Ciryl Gane in March 2023. But Miocic’s reputation as a dangerous striker and his positional value as a former champ create a tempting underdog opportunity for bettors looking for a bigger profit.
Key Factors for Success
- The adaptability of Jon Jones: His ability to adjust strategy mid-fight has often been overwhelming for opponents, making him inimitable and unpredictable.
- Experience and Power: Miocic can claim a legacy as one of the most durable heavyweight champions in history.
- Physical Conditioning: Miocic’s age and Jones’ recent change in weight class make conditioning crucial. A long, high-intensity fight would work in favor of the fighter who has the most stamina and can take damage well over time.
Conclusion
More than just any title fight, the main event at UFC 309 is a turning point in the history of the heavyweight division. Both Jones and Miocic have, over the years, brought into the cage a legacy of achievements, unique strengths, and fan followings in each as they fight to cement their status at the very top. In the case of Jon Jones, an opportunity to crown himself one of the all-time greats by conquering the heavyweight division; for Stipe Miocic, a chance to re-take the title, shut the doubters, and re-establish himself as an undisputed champion.
Fans, analysts, and bettors are all on edge as the fight looms between these two titans. The most likely outcome from this fight is that it will reshape the division and leave a lasting impact on UFC, setting the stage for what promises to be a defining chapter in the history of MMA.
